Neil's Nuggets - November 24, 2025

Looking at the current standings and predicting who will make the playoffs and who won't. I don't look at points alone, I look at another number that tells me a lot about a team's chances of making the playoffs, even though it's not even Thanksgiving yet.

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Neil Smith

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Today, when we look at the standings, five teams are already -10 or worse in Goal Differential. What are the chances any of these five teams will qualify for this year's playoffs? We looked back over the last four seasons on exactly this date to see how many double-digit minus teams in goal differential ended up making the postseason.

November 24, 2024: 9 teams, only 3 made it
November 24, 2023: 8 teams, only 1 made it
November 24, 2022: 10 teams, none made it
November 24, 2021: 9 teams, none made it

Conclusion:
In the previous 4 seasons, out of 36 teams that were -10 or worse on this date, only 4 made it.
So, if your team is -10 or worse right now, you have an 11% chance of making the playoffs.

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Neil Smith

Author

published

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